977
FXUS63 KAPX 060340
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1040 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy with showers through Friday. Rain likely to mix
with/turn to snow for some tonight into Friday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level troughing essentially sitting
directly atop the western Great Lakes early this afternoon.
Attendant area of surface low pressure now centered downstream over
Quebec. Initial cold front crossed last night, with a secondary cold
front beginning to make headway into far northern/western sections
of the forecast area. This boundary will cross through the remainder
of the afternoon into early evening before exiting to the southeast.
Cold air advection to be the rule tonight into Friday before higher
surface pressure and low-level warm advection firmly take over later
Friday afternoon into Friday night. The weekend through much of
next week look mainly dry, although an active northern stream
will allow several waves to trek by to our north, the first as
early as Sunday with additional Tuesday and again Thursday.
Forecast Details: Primary focus this afternoon through Friday
continues to revolve around increasingly gusty winds and continued
rain showers, which may eventually mix with or change over to all
snow for some locations by later tonight into Friday morning.
Winds will be in the process of turning out of northwest post cold
frontal passage this afternoon and early evening. Latest trends
support increasing gustiness behind this frontal passage with
highest probabilities for localized gusts of 35+ mph across far
northwest lower MI and near Whitefish Bay in the eastern U.P. While
the timeframe for strongest winds is between 22z-08z, it`ll remain
breezy for much of northern MI pretty much through the day Friday
with gusts of 20-30 mph common. Wind chills at commute/bus stop time
Friday morning expected to range from the mid-20s to low 30s area-
wide.
Periods of numerous rain showers across parts of the area are
expected to remain the rule at times through the remainder of the
day, tonight and into Friday. Showers heading into tonight/Friday
aided by lingering synoptic support/moisture combined with
increasing over-lake instability as cold air advection ramps up. H8
temps favored to bottom out between -4.5 to -6 C by late tonight
into Friday morning with a rain/snow mix or change over to all wet
snow becoming likely across parts of the forecast area -- primarily
sections of eastern U.P. and the interior higher terrain of northern
lower. Surface temps a little trickier with latest trends favoring
the coldest spots falling to 33-36F during this time frame, but
certainly in the realm of possibilities for locations that see
heavier/steadier precipitation to drop a touch cooler than that.
None the less, any accumulation of wet snow should be minor (~0.5"
or less) and primarily be limited to cooler and/or elevated surfaces
given ground temps should be sufficiently warm to melt most of what
falls. That said, latest REFS probs of 35-45% exist for 1"+ of
accum. by 18z Friday, primarily near and north of M-28 in Chippewa
County.
Lingering synoptic support exits through Friday afternoon with any
rain/snow mix turning back to all rain before the vast majority of
precip exits by Friday evening. Perhaps a few lingering lake induced
rain showers in north flow favored lake effect areas, but overall, a
much quieter Friday night anticipated.
As was alluded to above, latest trends support less active
conditions return to northern MI this weekend, and potentially
through much of the remainder of the forcast period. That said,
confidence decreases heading towards the middle of next week as
aforementioned active northern jet may buckle enough to send another
shot of cooler temperatures and lake enhanced precip into the area.
High temps Saturday in the 40s and low 50s area-wide with more 50s
favored Sunday through at least Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1028 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
MVFR to perhaps even IFR producing cigs and periods of vis
restricting showers will impact the taf locations through at
least this morning. Lake component to showers will increase as
well, targeting both KTVC and KAPN for most persistent and
heaviest showers. May see some snow mix in this morning at both
KCIU and KPLN, but no significant accumulations expected. Slow
improvement expected this afternoon and evening as cigs slowly
increase and shower coverage decreases. KAPN looks to be the
exception, with showers and low cigs likely continuing through
the afternoon...with slow improvement holding off until this
evening. Gusty north winds this morning, with wind speeds slowly
decreasing this afternoon into the evening.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349.
Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for LSZ321.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LSZ322.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...MSB
NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion